The First Five Years of Retirement Decide the Next Twenty
Wade Pfau's research shows the first 10 years of retirement drive about 77 percent of the final outcome. Sequence of returns risk is the most underestimated threat retirees face.
Retirement doesn't start at 65. It starts when your cash flow can fund your lifestyle without a paycheck. Here's how to think about it.
We have all grown up with the idea that retirement happens at 65. But 65 is just a number on a calendar. It is not a financial requirement, and it is definitely not a finish line.
Retirement happens when your money can cover your lifestyle without relying on a paycheck. If that is happening at 55, you are retired. If it is not happening at 70, you are not. The real question is not "When can I retire?" It is "Does my retirement cash flow support the life I want?"
Consider a retiree with $3.4 million in investable assets, no debt, and a paid-off home. On paper, that looks like plenty. But without a system to convert savings into income, even a strong balance sheet can feel uncertain. Many retirees are not short on money. They are short on cash flow confidence.
A bucket strategy is one of the most effective ways to solve this. Here is how it typically works.
Short-term cash bucket (Years 0 to 2). Set aside 12 to 24 months of living expenses in cash or cash-like instruments. This creates breathing room so you never have to sell investments in a down market just to pay bills.
Intermediate bucket (Years 3 to 10). This sleeve holds bonds, dividend-paying stocks, and shorter-duration assets designed for stability and income. It funds your middle years while long-term investments keep growing.
Growth bucket (Years 10 and beyond). Globally diversified equities and growth-oriented funds sit here. The purpose is to outpace inflation, rising healthcare costs, and longevity risk. Because your near-term needs are already covered, these assets can ride out volatility.
Markets move, and so does retirement spending. Rather than withdrawing the same fixed amount each month, a flexible harvesting approach adjusts based on conditions.
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More on income planning from the TRRP editorial team.

Wade Pfau's research shows the first 10 years of retirement drive about 77 percent of the final outcome. Sequence of returns risk is the most underestimated threat retirees face.

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